Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP15939
Authors: Yinon Baron; Tatiana Baron; Ofer Cornfeld; Ron Milo; Eran Yashiv
Abstract: We present normative and positive analyses of policy tools to manage epidemics, both current and any future ones.Against the background of serious misspecification of COVID19 dynamics in Economics research, at odds with the evidence, we present a constructive alternative with a sound model. This may guide researchers and place the analysis in Economics on solid footing.We introduce novel NPI tools for the management of epidemics. Rather than using prevalent policies based on population restrictions, these place time at the center of the analysis: time restrictions, relation to timescales of virus transmission, and optimal timing of interventions.Key findings are that the new tools significantly improve social welfare, substantially lessening the trade-offs involved; optimally-derived timings of interventions suppress the disease while maintaining reasonable economic activity; and outcomes are superior to the actual experience of New York State and Florida in the course of 2020.
Keywords: Public Health Policy; NPI; Roles of Time; Normative Analysis; Positive Analysis
JEL Codes: E23; E61; E65; I12; I18
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| introduction of novel NPIs based on time restrictions (O35) | social welfare (I38) |
| optimally derived timings of interventions (C41) | reduction in death toll (J17) |
| optimally derived timings of interventions (C41) | reduction in economic losses (F69) |
| improved timing (C41) | reduction in death toll (J17) |
| improved timing (C41) | reduction in economic losses (F69) |
| timing of interventions (C41) | health outcomes (I14) |
| timing of interventions (C41) | economic activity (E20) |