Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP15800
Authors: Rikard Forslid; Mathias Herzing
Abstract: This paper models the current pandemic to analyze vaccination strategies in a setting with three age groups that differ with respect to their fatality rates. The model also accounts for heterogeneity in the transmission rates between and within these age groups. We compare the outcomes in terms of the total number of deceased, the total number of infected, the peak infection rate and the economic consequences. We find that fatalities are almost always minimized by first vaccinating the elderly, except when vaccination is slow and the general transmission rate is relatively low. In this case deaths are minimized by first vaccinating the middle-aged as this group is responsible for substantial spreading of the virus to the elderly. With regard to the other outcome variables it is always best to vaccinate the middle-aged group first. A trade-off may therefore emerge between reducing fatalities on the one hand and lowering the number of infected as well as maximizing the economic gains from vaccinations on the other hand.
Keywords: vaccines; SIR model; COVID-19
JEL Codes: D42; D62; H10; I18; L10
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Vaccinating the elderly first (J14) | minimizes fatalities (J17) |
| Vaccinating the middle-aged first (J14) | minimizes deaths (I12) |
| Vaccinating the middle-aged first (J14) | minimizes total number of infections (I12) |
| Vaccinating the middle-aged first (J14) | maximizes economic gains (D61) |
| Prioritizing the elderly (J14) | reduces deaths but increases infections and economic costs (I12) |