Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP15646
Authors: Robert E. Hall; Marianna Kudlyak
Abstract: Unemployment recoveries in the US have been inexorable. In the aftermath of a recession, unless another crisis intervenes, unemployment continues to glide down. Between 1948 and 2019, the annual reduction in the unemployment rate during cyclical recoveries was distributed around 0.1 log points per year. The economy seems to have an irresistible force toward restoring full employment. Occasionally, unemployment rises rapidly during an economic crisis, while most of the time, unemployment declines slowly and smoothly at a near-constant proportional rate. Similar properties hold for other measures of the US unemployment rate and for unemployment in emerging and advanced countries.
Keywords: Natural unemployment rate; NAIRU; Business cycle; Recovery; Unemployment; Recession
JEL Codes: E32; J63; J64
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Economic conditions (E66) | Unemployment rates (J64) |
| Economic crises (G01) | Unemployment rates (J64) |
| Recovery (E65) | Unemployment rates (J64) |
| Time (C41) | Unemployment rates (J64) |