Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP15578
Authors: Rka Juhsz; Mara Squicciarini; Nico Voigtländer
Abstract: We examine the future of remote work by drawing parallels between two contexts: The move from home to factory-based production during the Industrial Revolution and the shift to work from home today. In both cases, new technology induced new working arrangements, and this shift was associated with a similar trade-off in the past as it is today: productivity advantages and cost savings versus organizational barriers such as coordinating workers under the new workplace arrangement. Using contemporary data, we show that the COVID-19 pandemic moved even sectors with high organizational barriers to working from home. Without further technological or organizational innovations, this shift is likely to be reversed, and remote work may not be here to stay just yet.
Keywords: Work from Home; Industrial Revolution; Coordination
JEL Codes: F63; O14
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Technological advancements (O33) | Ability to work remotely (J62) |
| Need for coordination (E61) | Share of employees working from home (J29) |
| Technological feasibility (O30) | Remote work (J62) |
| Historical context of the industrial revolution (N60) | Current shifts in work arrangements (J29) |
| COVID-19 pandemic (H12) | Shift in working arrangements (J29) |
| Technological feasibility (O30) | Long-term sustainability of WFH (J29) |
| Organizational barriers (L22) | Long-term sustainability of WFH (J29) |