Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP15527
Authors: Thiemo Fetzer; Oliver Vanden Eynde; Pedro CL Souza; Austin Wright
Abstract: How do foreign powers disengage from a conflict? We study this issue by examining the recent, large-scale security transition from international troops to local forces in the ongoing civil conflict in Afghanistan. We construct a new dataset that combines information on this transition process with declassified conflict out- comes and previously unreleased quarterly survey data of residents’ perceptions of local security. Our empirical design leverages the staggered roll-out of the transition, and employs a novel instrumental variables approach to estimate the impact. We find a significant, sharp, and timely decline of insurgent violence in the initial phase – the security transfer to Afghan forces; we find that this is followed by a significant surge in violence in the second phase – the actual physical withdrawal of foreign troops. We argue that this pattern is consistent with a signaling model, in which the insurgents reduce violence strategically to facilitate the foreign military withdrawal to capitalize on the reduced foreign military presence afterwards. Our findings clarify the destabilizing consequences of withdrawal in one of the costliest conflicts in modern history, and yield potentially actionable insights for designing future security transitions.
Keywords: Counterinsurgency; Civil Conflict; Public Goods Provision
JEL Codes: D72; D74; L23
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Insurgents reducing violence to facilitate withdrawal (F51) | Surge in attacks afterward (H56) |
| Security transfer to Afghan forces (H56) | Decline in insurgent violence (F51) |
| Local announcements of the security transition schedule (F59) | Short-term decline in violence (D74) |
| Physical withdrawal of foreign troops (H56) | Surge in violence (D74) |