Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP15510
Authors: David Jacks; Krishna Pendakur; Hitoshi Shigeoka
Abstract: Federal prohibition from 1920 to 1933 was one of the most ambitious policy interventions in US history. However, due to the political concessions necessary to bring about repeal, the removal of restrictions on alcohol after 1933 was not uniform. Using new data on city-level variation in alcohol prohibition from 1933 to 1936, we investigate whether the repeal of federal prohibition affected multiple causes of urban (non-infant) mortality. We find that city-level repeal is associated with a 14.7% decrease in homicide rates and a 10.1% decrease in mortality rates associated with other accidents (including accidental poisonings). Thus, the repeal of federal prohibition could have led to an annual reduction of as many as 3,400 urban deaths. Combined with previous results showing large increases in infant mortality, this suggests that nonetheless repeal most likely had negative effects on all-cause mortality and, thereby, public health in the US.
Keywords: Federal Prohibition; Local Option; Urban Mortality
JEL Codes: H73; I18; J1; N3
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| repeal of prohibition (N42) | decrease in homicide rates (K00) |
| repeal of prohibition (N42) | decrease in mortality rates from other accidents (J28) |
| repeal of prohibition (N42) | reduction in urban deaths (R23) |
| decrease in homicide rates (K00) | reduction in urban deaths (R23) |
| decrease in mortality rates from other accidents (J28) | reduction in urban deaths (R23) |