Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP15484
Authors: M. Daniele Paserman; Claudia Olivetti; Laura Salisbury; E. Anna Weber
Abstract: We present new findings about the relationship between marriage and socioeconomic background in the United States in the late 19th and early 20th Centuries. Imputing socioeconomic status of family of origin from first names, we document a socioeconomic gradient for women in the probability of marriage and the socioeconomic status of husbands. This socioeconomic gradient becomes steeper over time. We investigate the degree to which it can be explained by occupational income divergence across geographic regions. Regional divergence explains about one half of the socioeconomic divergence in the probability of marriage, and almost all of the increase in marital sorting. Differences in urbanization rates and the share of foreign-born across states drive most of these differences, while other factors (the scholarization rate, the sex ratio and the share in manufacturing) play a smaller role.
Keywords: marriage; assortative mating; gender; intergenerational mobility; regional convergence
JEL Codes: J12; J62; N31; N32; N91; N92
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| socioeconomic status (SES) of family of origin (I24) | marriage outcomes (J12) |
| regional divergence (R11) | socioeconomic divergence in marriage probability (J12) |
| urbanization rates (R11) | marriage outcomes (J12) |
| share of foreign-born individuals (J11) | marriage outcomes (J12) |
| socioeconomic status (SES) (I24) | marital sorting (J12) |
| socioeconomic status (SES) (I24) | correlation in occupational earnings of husbands and wives' families of origin (J12) |
| high SES women (I24) | decline in marriage gains (J12) |
| low SES women (I24) | likelihood to marry (J12) |
| regional economic transitions (R11) | SES gradient in marriage (J12) |