Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP15417
Authors: Hansjoachim Voth
Abstract: Is long-term economic persistence a myth? In this survey, I examine what has been learned from the wave of articles examining the persistence of economic phenomena. The article clarifies some of the concepts, distinguishes different strands of the literature, and questions the validity of recent critiques of persistence papers. While challenges in the form of misattribution and p-hacking abound, this survey concludes that persistence is real, and that future research should focus on mechanisms and the conditions under which persistence breaks down.
Keywords: long-run persistence; spatial correlation; economic geography; culture
JEL Codes: N00
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| historical conditions (B15) | modern economic outcomes (P17) |
| self-governance in medieval Italy (N93) | modern economic outcomes (P17) |
| self-governance in medieval Italy (N93) | productivity (O49) |
| self-governance in medieval Italy (N93) | civic responsibility (M14) |
| historical advantages (N93) | sustained economic benefits (F69) |
| historical income levels (N32) | current income disparities (D31) |
| cultural characteristics + economic variables (Z19) | persistent outcomes (C41) |