Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP15372
Authors: Peter Egger; Gabriel Loumeau; Nicole Loumeau
Abstract: We document an unprecedented change in the size and the quality of China's transport-infrastructure network between 2000 and 2013. This documentation is based on hand-collected and digitized data on roads and railways. The changes are summarized and portrayed as shortest-possible transport times of people and goods between 330 prefectures of mainland China. A quantitative model of China's prefectures and a Rest of the World, featuring both goods trade and migration, suggests that the long-run consequences of the transport-infrastructure changes induce regional convergence of lagging-behind prefectures in terms of population density and, to a lesser extent, in terms of real per-capita income. Not only changes in highway and high-speed-railway networks but also ones in lower-level road and railway networks are quantitatively important. Key drivers behind the effects are the facilitation of goods transport as well as technology diffusion, while the reduction of mobility costs and the diffusion of amenities appear less important.
Keywords: transport infrastructure; regional economics; general-equilibrium models; structural estimation; migration; transportation problem
JEL Codes: F14; R13; R41
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Improved transport networks (R42) | Migration flows (F22) |
| Improved transport networks (R42) | Trade costs (F19) |
| Improved transport networks (R42) | Technology diffusion (O33) |
| Improved transport networks (R42) | Amenity diffusion (R12) |
| Improved transport networks (R42) | Regional convergence in population density (R23) |
| Improved transport networks (R42) | Regional convergence in real per capita income (F62) |