Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP15329
Authors: Ana BabuĊ; Sanmay Das; Sangmok Lee
Abstract: Covid-19 vaccine prioritization is key if the initial supply of the vaccine is limited. A consensus is emerging to first prioritize populations facing a high risk of severe illness in high-exposure occupations. The challenge is assigning priorities next among high-risk populations in low-exposure occupations and those that are young and healthy but work in high-exposure occupations. We estimate occupation-based infection risks and use age-based infection fatality rates in a model to assign priorities over populations with different occupations and ages. Among others, we find that 50-year-old food-processing workers and 60-year-old financial advisors are equally prioritized. Our model suggests a vaccine distribution that emphasizes age-based mortality risk more than occupation-based exposure risk. Designating some occupations as essential does not affect the optimal vaccine allocation unless a stay-at-home order is also in effect. Even with vaccines allocated optimally, 7.14% of the employed workforce is still expected to be infected with the virus until the vaccine becomes widely available, provided the vaccine is 50% effective, and assuming a supply of 60mil doses.
Keywords: optimal assignment; occupational health
JEL Codes: H4; I1
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| prioritizing age over occupation in vaccine distribution (J14) | more effective allocation strategies (D61) |
| age interacts with occupation to determine vaccine eligibility (J14) | age is a stronger predictor of mortality risk (J17) |
| vaccine effectiveness (I12) | proportion of workforce expected to be infected (J21) |
| designating occupations as essential (J45) | vaccine allocation (I18) |
| stay-at-home order (C69) | effect on vaccine allocation (I14) |