Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP15252
Authors: Gregory Clark; Neil Cummins
Abstract: Schooling and social outcomes correlate strongly. But are these connections causal? Previouspapers for England using compulsory schooling to identify causal effects have produced conflictingresults. Some found significant effects of schooling on adult longevity and on earnings,others found no effects. Here we measure the consequence of extending compulsory schoolingin England to ages 14, 15 and 16 in the years 1919-22, 1947 and 1972. From administrativedata these increases in compulsory schooling added 0.43, 0.60 and 0.43 years of education tothe affected cohorts. We estimate the effects of these increases in schooling for each cohorton measures of adult longevity, on dwelling values in 1999 (an index of lifetime incomes), andon the the social characteristics of the places where the affected cohorts died. Since we haveaccess to all the vital registration records, and a nearly complete sample of the 1999 electoralregister, we find with high precision that all the schooling extensions failed to increase adultlongevity (as had been found previously for the 1947 and 1972 extensions), dwelling values, orthe social status of the communities people die in. Compulsory schooling ages 14-16 had noeffect, at the cohort level, on social outcomes in England.
Keywords: Education; Human Capital
JEL Codes: No JEL codes provided
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| extensions of compulsory schooling (I21) | adult longevity (J17) |
| extensions of compulsory schooling (I21) | dwelling values (R21) |
| extensions of compulsory schooling (I21) | social outcomes (I14) |
| average of 0.43 years of education (I21) | adult longevity (J17) |
| average of 0.43 years of education (I21) | dwelling values (R21) |
| average of 0.43 years of education (I21) | social outcomes (I14) |
| 1922 extension (Y20) | adult longevity (J17) |
| 1922 extension (Y20) | dwelling values (R21) |
| 1922 extension (Y20) | social outcomes (I14) |
| 1947 extension (Y20) | adult longevity (J17) |
| 1947 extension (Y20) | dwelling values (R21) |
| 1947 extension (Y20) | social outcomes (I14) |
| 1972 extension (Y20) | adult longevity (J17) |
| 1972 extension (Y20) | dwelling values (R21) |
| 1972 extension (Y20) | social outcomes (I14) |