Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP15239
Authors: Ian Dewbecker; Stefano W. Giglio; Bryan Kelly
Abstract: We study the pricing of shocks to uncertainty and volatility using a wide-ranging set of options contracts covering a variety of different markets. If uncertainty shocks are viewed as bad by investors, they should carry negative risk premia. Empirically, however, uncertainty risk premia are positive in most markets. Instead, it is the realization of large shocks to fundamentals that has historically carried a negative premium. In other words, we find that the return premium for gamma is negative while that for vega is positive. These results imply that it is jumps, for which exposure is measured by gamma, not forward-looking uncertainty shocks, measured by vega, that drive investors’ marginal utility. In further support of the jump interpretation, the return patterns are more extreme for deeper out of the money options.
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Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| uncertainty shocks (D89) | negative risk premia (D81) |
| realization of large shocks to fundamentals (E32) | negative risk premia (D81) |
| realization of large shocks to fundamentals (E32) | returns (Y60) |
| gamma (Y70) | negative return premium (G12) |
| vega (Y60) | positive return premium (G12) |
| jumps (Y60) | investors' marginal utility (D11) |