Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP15208
Authors: Felipe Valencia Caicedo
Abstract: This chapter surveys the usage of Instrumental Variables (IVs) and Regression Discontinuity Designs (RDDs) in economic history. I document the positive trends of economic history articles employing these methods using three different samples: top 20 journals in economics, top 5 journals in economic history and top five general interest journals in economics from 2000-2020. I detail two broad phases: seminal articles published from 2001 to 2011, and a second wave of studies refining these techniques appearing from 2012 to today (2020). I discuss some methodological refinements that have appeared recently in the econometrics field—in the IV and RDD fronts. I then present a practical guide on regression diagnostics, acknowledging that there are other useful sources of identification available to tackle potential endogeneity issues.
Keywords: economic history; econometrics; instrumental variables; regression discontinuity designs; survey
JEL Codes: A33; C1; C26; C36; N01
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| higher settler mortality (I12) | more extractive institutions (O17) |
| more extractive institutions (O17) | negatively impacted GDP per capita (F69) |
| historical land tenure patterns in colonial India (F54) | influenced modern agricultural investment (Q14) |
| historical land tenure patterns in colonial India (F54) | influenced productivity (O49) |
| mita labor system in Peru (J47) | significant negative effects on consumption (E21) |
| mita labor system in Peru (J47) | significant negative effects on health outcomes (I14) |