Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP15187
Abstract: We examine the long-term pattern of state formation and the mythical historical Chinese unity under one single political regime based on the compilation of a large geocoded annual data series of political regimes and incidences of warfare between 221 BC and 1911 AD. By classifying our data sets into two types of regimes - agrarian and nomadic – and three types of warfare– agrarian/nomadic, agrarian/agrarian and internal rebellions – and applying an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, we find that nomadic-agrarian warfare and internal rebellion strengthens unification but agrarian/agrarian warfare entrenches fragmentation. Our research highlights the combination of China’s precocious ideology of a single unified ruler, environmental circumscription on the easternmost end of Eurasia and persistent agrarian-nomadic warfare as the driving force behind China’s eventual unity. We further discuss the long-run implications of Chinese unity on economic performance in a global context.
Keywords: agrarian-nomadic warfare; China; country size; state formation; warfare
JEL Codes: N00
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| nomadic-agrarian warfare (P32) | state unification (H77) |
| nomadic-agrarian warfare (P32) | territorial size of agrarian regimes (P32) |
| nomadic-agrarian warfare (P32) | number of agrarian regimes (P32) |
| internal rebellions (D74) | state unification (H77) |
| civil wars (D74) | fragmentation (F12) |
| agrarian-agrarian warfare (D74) | fragmentation (F12) |
| warfare (H56) | state unification (H77) |