Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP15174
Authors: Nicholas Crafts; Terence C. Mills
Abstract: We investigate a structural model of demographic-economic interactions for England during 1570 to 1850. We estimate that the annual rate of population growth consistent with constant real wages was 0.4 per cent before 1760 but 1.5 per cent thereafter. We find that exogenous shocks increased population growth dramatically in the early decades of the Industrial Revolution. Simulations of our model show that if these demographic shocks had occurred before the Industrial revolution the impact on real wages would have been catastrophic and that these shocks were largely responsible for very slow growth of real wages during the Industrial Revolution.
Keywords: epidemic disease; industrial revolution; malthusian checks; nuptiality; population growth; real wages; technological progress
JEL Codes: N13; N33
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| real earnings (J31) | births (J11) |
| real earnings (J31) | deaths (I12) |
| demographic shocks (J11) | population growth (J11) |
| demographic shocks (J11) | real wages (J31) |
| population growth (J11) | real wages (J31) |
| demographic changes (J11) | economic performance (P17) |