Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP15149
Authors: Michle Tertilt; Matthias Doepke; Titan Alon; Jane Olmstead-Rumsey
Abstract: In recent US recessions, employment losses have been much larger for men thanfor women. Yet, in the current recession caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, theopposite is true: unemployment is higher among women. In this paper, we analyzethe causes and consequences of this phenomenon. We argue that women haveexperienced sharp employment losses both because their employment is concentratedin heavily affected sectors such as restaurants, and due to increased childcareneeds caused by school and daycare closures, preventing many women from working.We analyze the repercussions of this trend using a quantitative macroeconomicmodel featuring heterogeneity in gender, marital status, childcare needs, and humancapital. Our quantitative analysis suggests that a pandemic recession will i)feature a strong transmission from employment to aggregate demand due to diminishedwithin-household insurance; ii) result in a widening of the gender wage gapthroughout the recovery; and iii) contribute to a weakening of the gender norms thatcurrently produce a lopsided distribution of the division of labor in home work andchildcare.
Keywords: COVID-19; Pandemics; Recessions; Business Cycle; Gender Equality; School Closures; Childcare; Gender Wage Gap
JEL Codes: D13; E32; J16; J20
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| pandemic recession (F44) | larger employment losses for women (J21) |
| concentration in heavily affected sectors (L52) | larger employment losses for women (J21) |
| increased childcare responsibilities (J13) | women's ability to maintain employment (J29) |
| pandemic recession (F44) | widening of the gender wage gap (J79) |
| reduced work hours or exiting labor force (J22) | depreciation of women's skills (J16) |
| employment losses (J63) | transmission to aggregate demand (E16) |