Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP15140
Authors: Paola Giuliano; Romain Wacziarg
Abstract: We argue that low levels of social capital are conducive to the electoral success of populist movements. Using a variety of data sources for the 2016 US Presidential election at the county and individual levels, we show that social capital, measured either by the density of memberships in civic, religious and sports organizations or by generalized trust, is significantly negatively correlated with the vote share and favorability rating of Donald Trump around the time of the election.
Keywords: social capital; voting behavior; populism
JEL Codes: D72; Z1
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| low levels of social capital (Z13) | vote share of Donald Trump (D72) |
| low levels of social capital (Z13) | favorability rating of Donald Trump (D79) |
| social capital (Z13) | ability to cope with economic changes (E32) |
| social capital (Z13) | normative pressure within social networks (D85) |
| social capital influences voting behavior (D72) | support for Donald Trump (K16) |