Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP15139
Authors: Tamma Carleton; Amir Jina; Michael Delgado; Michael Greenstone; Trevor Houser; Solomon M. Hsiang; Andrew Hultgren; Robert Kopp; Kelly McCusker; Ishan Nath; James Rising; Ashwin Rode; Hee Kwon Seo; Arvid Viaene; Jiacan Yuan; Alice Tianbo Zhang
Abstract: Using 40 countries’ subnational data, we estimate age-specific mortality-temperature relationships and extrapolate them to countries without data today and into a future with climate change. We uncover a U-shaped relationship where extreme cold and hot temperatures increase mortality rates, especially for the elderly. Critically, this relationship is flattened by both higher incomes and adaptation to local climate. Using a revealed preference approach to recover unobserved adaptation costs, we estimate that the mean global increase in mortality risk due to climate change, accounting for adaptation benefits and costs, is valued at roughly 3.2% of global GDP in 2100 under a high emissions scenario. Notably, today’s cold locations are projected to benefit, while today’s poor and hot locations have large projected damages. Finally, our central estimates indicate that the release of an additional ton of CO2 today will cause mortality-related damages of $36.6 under a high emissions scenario and using a 2% discount rate, with an interquartile range accounting for both econometric and climate uncertainty of [-$7.8, $73.0]. Under a moderate emissions scenario, these damages are valued at $17.1 [-$24.7, $53.6]. These empirically grounded estimates exceed the previous literature’s estimates by an order of magnitude.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: Q51; Q54; H23; H41; I14
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| temperature variations (F44) | mortality rates (I12) |
| higher incomes (J39) | lower mortality sensitivity to temperature extremes (I14) |
| better adaptation (C52) | lower mortality sensitivity to temperature extremes (I14) |
| climate change (Q54) | increase in mortality risk (I12) |
| release of an additional ton of CO2 (Q54) | mortality-related damages (J17) |
| failure to account for adaptation and income growth (O49) | overstatement of mortality costs of climate change (J17) |
| extreme cold temperatures (Q54) | increased mortality rates (I12) |
| extreme hot temperatures (Q54) | increased mortality rates (I12) |
| wealthier regions (R11) | lower mortality sensitivity to temperature extremes (I14) |