Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP15132
Authors: Mark Koyama; Noel Johnson; Remi Jedwab
Abstract: The Black Death was the largest demographic shock in European history. We review the evidence for the origins, spread, and mortality of the disease. We document that it was a plausibly exogenous shock to the European economy and trace out its aggregate and local impacts in both the short-run and the long-run. The initial effect of the plague was highly disruptive. Wages and per capita income rose. But, in the long-run, this rise was only sustained in some parts of Europe. The other indirect long-run effects of the Black Death are associated with the growth of Europe relative to the rest of the world, especially Asia and the Middle East (the Great Divergence), a shift in the economic geography of Europe towards the Northwest (the Little Divergence), the demise of serfdom in Western Europe, a decline in the authority of religious institutions, and the emergence of stronger states. Finally, avenues for future research are laid out
Keywords: Pandemics; Black Death; Institutions; Cities; Urbanization; Malthusian Theory; Demography; Long-Run Growth
JEL Codes: N00; N13; I15; I14; J11; O0; O43
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Black Death (N94) | economic activity disruption (F69) |
| Black Death (N94) | increase in wages (J38) |
| Black Death (N94) | increase in per capita income (O49) |
| higher mortality rates (I12) | shift in economic geography (F69) |
| Black Death (N94) | decline of serfdom (N93) |
| Black Death (N94) | decline of authority of religious institutions (Z12) |
| Black Death (N94) | emergence of stronger state structures (H10) |
| initial effects of Black Death (N93) | long-term consequences (I12) |