Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP15008
Authors: Yannay Spitzer; Gaspare Tortorici; Ariell Zimran
Abstract: The Messina-Reggio Calabria Earthquake (1908) was the deadliest earthquake and arguably the most devastating natural disaster in modern European history. It occurred when overseas mass emigration from southern Italy was at its peak and international borders were open, making emigration a widespread phenomenon and a readily available option for disaster relief. We use this singular event and its unique and important context to study the effects of natural disasters on international migration. Using commune-level data on damage and annual emigration, we find that, despite massive destruction, there is noevidence that the earthquake had, on average, a large impact on emigration or its composition. There were, however, heterogeneous and offsetting responses to the shock, with a more positive effect on emigration in districts where agricultural day laborers comprised a larger share of the labor force, suggestingthat attachment to the land was an impediment to reacting to the disaster through migration. Nonetheless, relative to the effects of ordinary shocks, such as a recession in the destination, this momentous event had a small impact on emigration rates. These findings contribute to literatures on climate- and disaster-driven migration and on the Age of Mass Migration.
Keywords: migration; natural disasters; refugees; italy; us immigration; age of mass migration
JEL Codes: F22; J61; O15; N3; Q54
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Panic of 1907 (N22) | emigration rates (J11) |
| Messina-Reggio Calabria earthquake (H84) | international migration rates (F22) |
| Messina-Reggio Calabria earthquake (H84) | emigration rates from severely damaged communes (J11) |
| emigration rates from severely damaged communes (J11) | demographic composition of emigration (J11) |
| attachment to land (Q15) | emigration rates from communes with high agricultural labor (J61) |