Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP15002
Authors: Dani Rodrik
Abstract: There is compelling evidence that globalization shocks, often working through culture and identity, have played an important role in driving up support for populist movements, particularly of the right-wing kind. I start with an empirical analysis of the 2016 presidential election in the U.S. to show globalization-related attitudinal variables were important correlates of the switch to Trump. I then provide a conceptual framework that identifies four distinct channels through which globalization can stimulate populism, two each on the demand and supply sides of politics, respectively. I evaluate the empirical literature with the help of this framework, discussing trade, financial globalization, and immigration separately. I conclude the paper by discussing some apparently anomalous cases where populists have been against, rather than in favor of trade protection.
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Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Globalization shocks (F69) | Voters' preferences for protectionist policies and anti-elite redistributive agendas (D72) |
| Economic dislocations (F69) | Voter preferences (heightening cultural and identity divisions) (D72) |
| Economic shocks (F69) | Political candidates' platforms (D72) |
| Economic shocks (F69) | Political parties emphasizing cultural issues (Z18) |