Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP15000
Authors: Karel Mertens; Adam Blandin; Alexander Bick
Abstract: Based on novel survey data, we document a persistent rise in work from home (WFH) over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using theory and direct survey evidence, we argue that three quarters of this increase reflects adoption of new work arrangements that will likely be permanent for many workers. A quantitative model matched to survey data predicts that twice as many workers will WFH full-time post-pandemic compared to pre-pandemic, and that one in every five instead of seven workdays will be WFH. These model predictions are consistent with survey evidence on workers' own expectations about WFH in the future.
Keywords: working from home; telecommuting; telework; remote work; covid-19
JEL Codes: J1; J2; J22; I18; R4
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| COVID-19 pandemic (H12) | significant and persistent rise in work from home (WFH) arrangements (J29) |
| COVID-19 pandemic (H12) | adoption of new work arrangements likely to be permanent (J29) |
| adoption of new work arrangements likely to be permanent (J29) | persistence of WFH (J29) |
| COVID-19 pandemic (H12) | doubling of full-time WFH post-pandemic compared to pre-pandemic levels (J29) |
| COVID-19 pandemic (H12) | acceleration of preexisting trend toward WFH (J29) |
| health concerns and benefits of new work arrangements (J28) | persistence of WFH (J29) |