Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP14983
Authors: Claus T. Kreiner; Gordon Dahl; Benjamin Ly Serena; Torben Heien Nielsen
Abstract: We decompose changing gaps in life expectancy between rich and poor into differential changes in age-specific mortality rates and differences in “survivability”. Declining age-specific mortality rates increases life expectancy, but the gain is small if the likelihood of living to this age is small (ex ante survivability) or if the expected remaining lifetime is short (ex post survivability). Lower survivability of the poor explains half of the recent rise in life expectancy inequality in the US and the entire rise in Denmark. Cardiovascular mortality declines favored the poor, but differences in lifestyle-related survivability led inequality to rise.
Keywords: mortality; life expectancy; inequality
JEL Codes: I14; J10
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| lower survivability among the poor (I14) | increase in life expectancy inequality in the US (I14) |
| lower survivability among the poor (I14) | increase in life expectancy inequality in Denmark (I14) |
| declining age-specific mortality rates (J11) | life expectancy (J17) |
| ex ante survivability and ex post survivability (C41) | limits on life expectancy gains (J17) |
| cardiovascular mortality declines (I12) | favored the poor (I32) |
| differences in lifestyle-related survivability (I12) | rising inequality (D31) |
| differential changes in mortality rates and existing mortality inequality (I14) | shifts in life expectancy inequality over time (I14) |
| higher survivability of the rich (D14) | increase in life expectancy inequality (I14) |
| mortality rates falling more for the poor (I14) | increase in life expectancy inequality (I14) |
| lack of change in life expectancy inequality among females in Denmark (J19) | offsetting effects of mortality rate declines and differences in survivability (J17) |