Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP14852
Authors: Chryssi Giannitsarou; Stephen Kissler; Flavio Toxvaerd
Abstract: This paper offers projections of future transmission dynamics for SARS-CoV-2 in an SEIRS model with demographics and waning immunity. In a stylized optimal control setting calibrated to the USA, we show that the disease is endemic in steady state and that its dynamics are characterized by damped oscillations. The magnitude of the oscillations depends on how fast immunity wanes. The optimal social distancing policy both curbs peak prevalence and postpones the infection waves relative to the uncontrolled dynamics. Last, we perform sensitivity analysis with respect to the duration of immunity, the infection fatality rate and the planning horizon.
Keywords: COVID-19; Economic Epidemiology; Social Distancing; Waning Immunity; Optimal Policy for Infection Control; SEIRS
JEL Codes: E61; I18
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| social distancing measures (I14) | infection dynamics (C69) |
| speed of waning immunity (C41) | frequency of infection waves (F44) |
| nature of immunity (F52) | required public health response (H12) |
| waning immunity (rapid) or high IFR (I12) | social distancing measures (significant and permanent) (F69) |
| social distancing policy (R28) | peak prevalence (C41) |
| social distancing policy (R28) | postponing infection waves (F44) |