Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP14851
Authors: W. Walker Hanlon; Casper Worm Hansen; Jake Kantor
Abstract: Using weekly mortality data for London spanning 1866-1965, we analyze the changing relationship between temperature and mortality as the city developed. Our results show that both warm and cold weeks were associated with elevated mortality in the late 19th-century, but heat effects, due mainly to infant deaths from digestive diseases, largely disappeared after WWI. The resulting change in the temperature-mortality relationship meant that thousands of heat-related deaths–equal to 0.8-1.3 percent of all deaths–were averted. Our findings also indicate that a series of hot years in the 1890s substantially changed the timing of the infant mortality decline in London.
Keywords: Temperature; Mortality; Historical Data; Public Health
JEL Codes: N3; I15; Q54
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| cold weather (Q54) | increased mortality (I12) |
| warm weeks (Q54) | increased infant mortality (J13) |
| changes in the disease environment (I12) | temperature effects on mortality (I12) |
| hot years in the 1890s (N51) | shifted timing of infant mortality decline (J11) |
| temperature-mortality relationship change (I12) | thousands of heat-related deaths averted (Q54) |
| warm weather effects (Q54) | diminished post-World War I (N14) |
| cold weather (Q54) | persistent impact on mortality (I12) |