Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP148
Authors: Louka T. Katseli; Nicholas P. Glytsos
Abstract: Emigration of labour and its subsequent repatriation can best be understood as phases of an intertemporal exchange process, of a relatively abundant factor, namely unskilled labour, for a relatively scarce factor, namely capital. This capital flow initially consists of financial capital, that is of emigrant remittances, and of human capital at the time of repatriation. This analytical hypothesis is empirically tested on Greek data and seems to be validated by the empirical evidence presented. The formulation of the emigration-repatriation cycle as an intertemporal phenomenon highlights the need for forward-looking policies. The analysis suggests that planning for the period of net immigration and of reduced remittances should be an integral component of policy in the sending country.
Keywords: labour mobility; emigration; migration-repatriation; effects of employment; saving abroad
JEL Codes: 023; 400; 823
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| expected income differentials between Greece and Germany (F29) | probability of emigration (F22) |
| probability of employment abroad (J68) | probability of emigration (F22) |
| probability of employment in Greece (J69) | probability of emigration (F22) |
| income per capita in Germany (D31) | expected remittances per migrant (F24) |
| income in Greece (D31) | expected remittances per migrant (F24) |
| real interest rates in Greece (E43) | expected remittances per migrant (F24) |
| German interest rates (E43) | expected remittances (F24) |