Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP14744
Authors: Benjamin Born; Alexander Dietrich; Gernot Müller
Abstract: While most countries imposed a lockdown in response to the first wave of COVID-19 infections, Sweden did not. To quantify the lockdown effect, we approximate a counterfactual lockdown scenario for Sweden through the outcome in a synthetic control unit. We find, first, that a 9-week lockdown in the first half of 2020 would have reduced infections and deaths by about 75% and 38%, respectively. Second, the lockdown effect starts to materialize with a delay of 3-4 weeks only. Third, the actual adjustment of mobility patterns in Sweden suggests there has been substantial voluntary social restraint, although the adjustment was less strong than under the lockdown scenario. Lastly, we find that a lockdown would not have caused much additional output loss.
Keywords: COVID-19; lockdown; counterfactual; synthetic control unit; voluntary social restraint; Google mobility reports; output loss
JEL Codes: C4; E0; I18
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| 9-week lockdown in Sweden (P27) | reduction of COVID-19 infections (I14) |
| 9-week lockdown in Sweden (P27) | reduction of deaths (I14) |
| 9-week lockdown in Sweden (P27) | behavioral adjustments in response to infection risk (E71) |
| behavioral adjustments in response to infection risk (E71) | infection dynamics (C69) |
| lockdown effect (E65) | infection dynamics (C69) |
| 9-week lockdown in Sweden (P27) | substantial additional output loss (E23) |
| 9-week lockdown in Sweden (P27) | delay of effect (3 to 4 weeks) (C41) |