Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP14717
Authors: Francis Ostermeijer; Hans Koster; Jos van Ommeren; Victor Mayland Nielsen
Abstract: How has the rise of the automobile influenced urban areas over the past century? In this paper we investigate the long-run impact of car ownership on urban population density, based on a sample of 232 city observations in 57 countries. Using the presence of a car manufacturer in 1920 as a source of exogenous variation, our IV estimates indicate that car ownership substantially reduces density. A one standard deviation increase in car ownership rates causes a reduction in population density of around 40%. For employment density we find almost identical results. This result has important implications for vehicle taxation, car ownership growth in developing countries, and new transport technologies such as automated vehicles.
Keywords: Car ownership; Vehicle costs; Urban density
JEL Codes: R12; R40
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Car Ownership (R48) | Urban Population Density (R23) |
| Car Ownership (R48) | Employment Density (J69) |
| Presence of a domestic commercial car manufacturer in 1920 (L62) | Car Ownership (R48) |
| Car Ownership (R48) | Urban Sprawl (R11) |
| Car Ownership (R48) | Decentralization of Urban Areas (R11) |