Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP14699
Authors: Rikard Forslid; Mathias Herzing
Abstract: This paper analyzes the epidemiological and economic e§ects of quarantines. We use a basic epidemiologic model, a SEIR-model, that is calibrated to roughly resemble the COVID- 19 pandemic, and we assume that individuals that become infected or are isolated on average lose a share of their productivity. An early quarantine will essentially postpone but not alter the course of the infection at a cost that increases in the duration and the extent of the quarantine. A quarantine starting at a later stage of the pandemic reduces the number of infected persons and economic losses, but generates a higher peak level of infectious people. A longer quarantine dampens the peak of the pandemic and reduces deaths, but implies higher economic losses. Both the peak share of infectious individuals and economic losses are U-shaped in relation to the share of the population in quarantine. A quarantine covering a moderate share of the population leads to a lower peak, fewer deaths and lower economic costs, but it implies that the peak of the pandemic occurs earlier.
Keywords: pandemics; quarantine; SEIR model; COVID-19
JEL Codes: D42; D62; H10; I18; L10
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| early quarantine (C22) | postpones infection course (I12) |
| early quarantine (C22) | economic costs (D61) |
| later quarantine (Y50) | total infections (I12) |
| later quarantine (Y50) | economic losses (F69) |
| later quarantine (Y50) | peak infectious levels (I12) |
| longer quarantine (C41) | dampens peak (C22) |
| longer quarantine (C41) | deaths (I12) |
| longer quarantine (C41) | economic losses (F69) |
| quarantine duration (C41) | trade-off between health outcomes and economic costs (I10) |
| moderate quarantine extent (Y50) | fewer deaths (J17) |
| moderate quarantine extent (Y50) | lower economic costs (D61) |
| moderate quarantine extent (Y50) | earlier peak of infectious individuals (J11) |