Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP14533
Authors: Riccardo De Gasperi; Simon Hong; Giovanni Ricco
Abstract: This paper studies the transmission of US monetary shocks across the globe by employing a high-frequency identification of policy shocks and large VAR techniques, in conjunction with a large macro-financial dataset of global and national indicators covering both advanced and emerging economies. Our identification controls for the information effects of monetary policy and allows for the separate analysis of tightenings and loosenings of the policy stance. First, we document that US policy shocks have large real and nominal spillover effects that affect both advanced economies and emerging markets. Policy actions cannot fully isolate national economies, even in the case of advanced economies with flexible exchange rates. Second, we investigate the channels of transmission and find that both trade and financial channels are activated and that there is an independent role for oil and commodity prices. Third, we show that effects are asymmetric and larger in the case of contractionary US monetary policy shocks. Finally, we contrast the transmission mechanisms of countries with different exchange rates, exposure to the dollar, and capital control regimes.
Keywords: Monetary Policy; Trilemma; Exchange Rates; Foreign Spillovers
JEL Codes: E5; F3; F4; C3
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| US monetary policy shocks (E39) | global economic indicators (F01) |
| US monetary policy shocks (E39) | advanced economies (O52) |
| US monetary policy shocks (E39) | emerging markets (O53) |
| contractionary US monetary policy shocks (E39) | global economic activity (F69) |
| contractionary US monetary policy shocks (E39) | industrial production (L69) |
| contractionary US monetary policy shocks (E39) | commodity prices (Q02) |
| US monetary policy shocks (E39) | global economy (F01) |