Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP14526
Authors: Grant Miller; Aureo De Paula; Christine Valente
Abstract: One-quarter of married, fertile-age women in Sub-Saharan Africa report not wanting a pregnancy and yet do not use contraceptives. To study this issue, we collect detailed data on women’s subjective probabilistic beliefs and estimate a structural model of contraceptive choices. Our results indicate that costly interventions like eliminating supply constraints would only modestly increase contraceptive use. Alternatively, increasing partners’ approval of methods, aligning partners’ fertility preferences with women’s, and correcting women’s beliefs about pregnancy risk absent contraception have the potential to increase use considerably. Results from a within-subject experiment testing this last finding are highly consistent with the structural estimates.
Keywords: contraception; probabilistic beliefs; Mozambique
JEL Codes: J13; J16; D83
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Information provision (L86) | Women's beliefs about pregnancy risk (J16) |
| Women's beliefs about pregnancy risk (J16) | Contraceptive use (J13) |
| Partner preferences (D71) | Contraceptive use (J13) |
| Aligning partners' fertility preferences (J12) | Contraceptive use (J13) |
| Removing monetary costs and supply constraints (E19) | Contraceptive use (J13) |