Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP14518
Authors: Filipe Campante; Emilio Depetris Chauvin; Ruben Durante
Abstract: We study how negative emotions can affect the behavior of voters and politicians by looking at the Ebola scare that hit the U.S. right before the 2014 midterm elections. Exploiting the timing and location of the four cases diagnosed in the U.S., we show that heightened concern about Ebola led to a lower vote share for the Democrats, as well as lower turnout, despite no evidence of a general anti-incumbent effect (including for President Obama). We then show that Republican politicians exploited the Ebola scare strategically by mentioning the disease in connection with immigration, terrorism, and President Obama. Voters responded with increased concern with Ebola, and increasingly conservative attitudes on immigration but not on other ideologically-charged issues. Our findings indicate that emotional reactions can have a strong electoral impact, that politicians perceive and respond strategically, and that this is mediated by issues that can be plausibly associated with the specific triggering factor.
Keywords: fear; disgust; emotions; elections; immigration; ebola
JEL Codes: D72; D91
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Ebola concerns (I15) | more conservative attitudes on immigration issues (K37) |
| heightened concern about Ebola (I15) | significant decrease in the Democratic vote share (D79) |
| heightened concern about Ebola (I15) | decreased voter turnout (K16) |
| one-standard-deviation increase in Ebola concerns (F69) | significant decrease in Democratic vote share (D79) |
| one-standard-deviation increase in Ebola searches (I15) | drop in voter turnout (K16) |