Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP14479
Authors: Leandro Prados de la Escosura; Carlos Álvarez Nogal; Carlos Santiago-Caballero
Abstract: Research in economic history has lately challenged the Malthusian depiction of preindustrial European economies, highlighting ‘efflorescences’, ‘Smithian’ and ‘growth recurring’ episodes. Do these defining concepts apply to preindustrial Spain? On the basis of new yearly estimates of output and population for nearly 600 years we show that preindustrial Spain was far from stagnant and phases of per capita growth and shrinkage alternated. Population and output per head evolved along supporting the hypothesis of a frontier economy. After a long phase of sustained and egalitarian growth, a collapse in the 1570s opened a new era of sluggish growth and high inequality. The unintended consequences of imperial ambitions in Europe on economic activity, rather than Malthusian forces, help to explain it.
Keywords: preindustrial spain; frontier economy; black death; malthusian; growth recurring
JEL Codes: E10; N13; O10; O47
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| imperial ambitions (F54) | economic activity (E20) |
| economic activity (E20) | economic collapse in the 1570s (N13) |
| economic collapse in the 1570s (N13) | sluggish growth and increased inequality (F62) |
| increasing fiscal pressure on urban activities (H69) | deurbaization (Y40) |
| deurbanization (R23) | collapse in average real incomes (E25) |
| economic structure (L16) | social inequality (I14) |