Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP14432
Authors: Jrme Adda; Paolo Pinotti; Giulia Tura
Abstract: This paper analyses the marriage decisions of natives and migrants focusing on the role of legal status and cultural distance. We exploit the successive enlargements of the European Union as a natural experiment that granted legal status only to some groups of foreign immigrants. Using Italian administrative data on the universe of marriages and separations, we show that access to legal status reduces by 60 percent the probability of immigrants intermarrying with natives, and it increases by 20 percent the hazard rate of separation for mixed couples formed before legal status acquisition. Building on this evidence, we develop and structurally estimate a multidimensional equilibrium model of marriage and separation, where individuals match on observed and unobserved characteristics. Allowing for trade-offs between cultural distance, legal status, and other socio-economic spousal characteristics, we quantify the role of legal status and the strength of cultural affinity. Through the evaluation of counterfactual policies, we show that granting legal status to migrants to foster their inclusion in the legal labor market paradoxically slows down the integration of minorities along cultural lines. We also show how recent migration waves will foster a gender marital imbalance within those communities.
Keywords: intermarriages; marital matching; separations; legal status; cultural distance
JEL Codes: J11; J12; J15
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Cultural Distance (Z10) | Intermarriage Probability (J12) |
| Legal Status (K19) | Integration of Minorities (J15) |
| Migration Patterns (F22) | Gender Marital Imbalances (J12) |
| Legal Status (K19) | Intermarriage Probability (J12) |
| Legal Status (K19) | Separation Hazard Rate (C41) |