Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP14391
Authors: Andrei Markevich; Castaneda Dower
Abstract: We analyse the stability of democracy in agrarian societies by exploring cross-district variation in Russian citizens’ preferences in 1917 Constituent Assembly elections. After plurality eluded the Bolsheviks, they introduced a dictatorship of the proletariat, which they claimed was necessary until the industrial worker became the median voter. We find that i) proletarians voted pro-Bolshevik; ii) citizens rewarded Bolsheviks for redistributive policies that were antagonistic to the Bolsheviks’ long-run development program but were strategically chosen to bolster peasant support; iii) surprisingly, these same policies fuelled proletariat support. The Bolshevik promise of democracy after industrialisation thus already lacked credibility in 1917.
Keywords: revolution; regime change; popular support; elections; communism; russia
JEL Codes: D72; H7; N44; P26
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| presence of industrial workers (L69) | bolshevik vote share (D72) |
| bolshevik policies (P35) | increased support among certain demographics (J18) |
| bolshevik's promise of democracy after industrialization (P16) | weakened base of support (F52) |