Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP14389
Authors: Kym Anderson
Abstract: Asia’s alcohol consumption, and its retail expenditure on each of beer, distilled spirits and grape wine, have more than doubled so far this century. In the process, the mix of beverages in Asia’s consumption of alcohol has been converging on that of the west as wine’s share rises. Since Asia’s beverage production has not kept up with its expansion in demand, imports net of exports are increasingly filling the gap – especially for wine. This paper analyses trends in consumption and imports for the region and key Asian countries, and provides projections to 2025 using a new model of global beverage markets.
Keywords: changes in beverage tastes; premiumization of alcohol consumption; impacts of tax and trade policies; beverage market projections
JEL Codes: F14; F17; L66; Q13
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| economic growth (O49) | alcohol consumption (L66) |
| urbanization (R11) | alcohol consumption (L66) |
| globalization (F60) | alcohol consumption (L66) |
| increased income (E25) | rise in wine consumption (L66) |
| rising demand (J23) | import levels (L00) |
| economic growth (O49) | convergence of beverage consumption towards Western patterns (L66) |
| changing consumer preferences (D12) | increased share of wine in total alcohol consumption (L66) |