Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP14374
Authors: Jos Mesquita; Gabriel João Pereira dos Santos; Jos Tavares
Abstract: This study examines whether standardized 12th grade national examination results are sensitive to coming legislative elections in Portugal. Using individual data for all exiting high school students taking national exams between the years 2004 and 2018, our empiricalinvestigation uncovers a 1.17 and 0.63 increase, on a scale of 0 to 20, in Mathematics and Portuguese scores, respectively, in the years where the exams occurred before legislative elections. The quality of students and the leniency of grading do not explain this rise in pre-election exam grades, suggesting the difficulty of the exam in itself is at stake. Further, we show that a unit increase in the average score of Mathematics and Portuguese exams, in those years, leads to a 1.46 percentage point rise in the vote share of the seating government.
Keywords: political business cycles; elections; standardized exams; education
JEL Codes: No JEL codes provided
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Political cycles (E32) | National exam scores (I24) |
| National exam scores (I24) | Vote share for incumbent government (D72) |
| Timing of exams relative to elections (K16) | National exam scores (I24) |