Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP14336
Authors: Marco Tabellini; Giacomo Magistretti
Abstract: We study whether economic integration fosters the process of democratization and the channels through which this might happen. Our analysis is based on a large panel dataset of countries between 1950 and 2014. We instrument actual trade with predicted trade constructed by estimating a time-varying gravity equation similar to Feyrer (2009). We find that economic integration has a positive effect on democracy, driven by trade with democratic partners and stronger for countries with lower initial levels of economic and institutional development. These results are consistent with a learning/cultural exchange process whereby economic integration promotes the spread of democracy from more to less democratic countries. We corroborate this interpretation by providing evidence against alternative mechanisms, such as income effects, human capital accumulation, and trade-induced changes in inequality.
Keywords: democracy; institutional development; economic integration; international trade
JEL Codes: F14; F15; P16
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| economic integration (F15) | democracy (D72) |
| trade with democratic partners (F10) | democracy (D72) |
| economic integration (F15) | cultural exchange (Z10) |
| cultural exchange (Z10) | democracy (D72) |
| economic integration (F15) | democratization (D72) |
| economic integration (F15) | learning process (J24) |
| economic integration with democratic partners (F15) | democratization (D72) |
| integration with autocratic partners (F55) | democracy (D72) |