Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP14329
Authors: Tiago Cavalcanti; Georgi Kocharkov; Cezar Santos
Abstract: What is the role of family planning interventions on fertility, savings, human capitalinvestment, and development? To examine this, endogenous unwanted fertility isembedded in an otherwise standard quantity-quality overlapping generations modelof fertility and growth. The model features costly fertility control and families can(partially) insure against a fertility risk by using costly modern contraceptives. In theevent of unexpected pregnancies, households can also opt to abort some pregnancies,at a cost. Given the number of children born, parents decide how much education toprovide and how much to save out of their income. We fit the model to Kenyan data,implement several family planning policies and decompose their aggregate effects.Our results suggest that with a small government budget (say, up to 0.5 percent ofGDP), family planning interventions might be more cost-effective in improving longrunliving standards than policies that subsidise basic education.
Keywords: education; income per capita; contraception; abortion
JEL Codes: E24; I15; J13; O11
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Family planning interventions (J13) | Unwanted fertility (J13) |
| Unwanted fertility (J13) | Educational attainment (I21) |
| Educational attainment (I21) | Income per capita (D31) |
| Family planning interventions (J13) | Educational attainment (I21) |
| Family planning interventions (J13) | Income per capita (D31) |
| Improved contraceptive access (J13) | Fertility (J13) |
| Family planning policies (J13) | Living standards (I31) |