Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP14325
Authors: Hannes Schwandt; Till Von Wachter
Abstract: This paper uses several large cross-sectional data sources and a new approach to estimate midlife effects of entering the labor market in a recession on mortality by cause and various measures of socioeconomic status. We find that cohorts coming of age during the deep recession of the early 1980s suffer increases in mortality that appear in their late 30s and further strengthen through age 50. We show these mortality impacts are driven by disease-related causes such as heart disease, lung cancer, and liver disease, as well as drug overdoses. At the same time, unlucky middle-aged labor market entrants earn less and work more while receiving less welfare support. They are also less likely to be married, more likely to be divorced, and experience higher rates of childlessness. Our findings demonstrate that temporary disadvantages in the labor market during young adulthood can have substantial impacts on lifetime outcomes, can affect life and death in middle age, and go beyond the transitory initial career effects typically studied.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: E32; I10; J10
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Graduating during a recession (E24) | Increased mortality rates (I12) |
| Increased mortality rates (I12) | Disease-related causes (I12) |
| Graduating during a recession (E24) | Adverse socioeconomic outcomes (I14) |
| Adverse socioeconomic outcomes (I14) | Increased mortality risks (I12) |
| Economic conditions at labor market entry (J29) | Later outcomes (I12) |