Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP14251
Authors: Olivier Marie; Arnaud Chevalier
Abstract: We study the link between parental selection and child criminality. Following the collapse of the communist regime in 1989, the number of births halved in East Germany. These cohorts became markedly more likely to be arrested as they grew up in reunified Germany. This is observed for both genders and all offence types. We highlight risk attitude as an important reason why certain women did not alter their fertility decisions during this time of economic uncertainty. We also show that this preference for risk was then strongly transmitted to their children which may in turn explain their high criminal propensity.
Keywords: fertility; crime; parental selection; economic uncertainty; risk attitude
JEL Codes: J13; K42
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Parental selection (J13) | Child criminality (J13) |
| Children born in East Germany between 1991 and 1993 (J13) | Higher likelihood of arrest (K42) |
| Negative parental selection (J12) | Child criminality (J13) |
| Risk preference (D81) | Child behavior (J13) |
| Parental risk preference (D15) | Child criminality (J13) |