Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP14223
Authors: Daron Acemoglu; Pascual Restrepo
Abstract: Artificial Intelligence is set to influence every aspect of our lives, not least the way production is organized. AI, as a technology platform, can automate tasks previously performedby labor or create new tasks and activities in which humans can be productively employed.Recent technological change has been biased towards automation, with insufficient focus oncreating new tasks where labor can be productively employed. The consequences of thischoice have been stagnating labor demand, declining labor share in national income, risinginequality and lower productivity growth. The current tendency is to develop AI in the direction of further automation, but this might mean missing out on the promise of the "right"kind of AI with better economic and social outcomes.
Keywords: automation; artificial intelligence; jobs; inequality; innovation; labor demand; productivity; tasks; technology; wages
JEL Codes: J23; J24
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| AI automation (C45) | stagnating labor demand (J29) |
| AI automation (C45) | declining labor share in national income (E25) |
| AI automation (C45) | rising inequality (D31) |
| AI automation (C45) | lower productivity growth (O49) |
| higher adoption of industrial robots (L63) | declines in labor demand (J23) |
| automation (L23) | reduced labor demand (J29) |
| automation (L23) | creation of new tasks (O31) |
| AI development trajectory (C45) | economic consequences (F69) |
| AI focusing on automation (O31) | negative implications for employment and inequality (F66) |
| shift towards AI applications that create new tasks (O35) | positive economic outcomes (D78) |