Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP14222
Authors: Beata Javorcik; Ben Kett; Katherine Stapleton; Layla Okane
Abstract: This paper uses high frequency data on the near universe of job adverts posted online in the UK to study the impact of the Brexit referendum on labour demand between January 2015 and December 2019. We develop measures of local labour market exposure to the threat of trade barriers on both goods and services exports if the UK were to leave the EU without a trade deal. We find that regions that were more exposed to potential barriers on professional services exports saw a differential decline in online job adverts in the period after the referendum, particularly for higher skilled jobs. This effect was distinct from the impact of the exchange rate depreciation, uncertainty surrounding future immigration policy and the threat of future barriers on trade in goods.
Keywords: trade; uncertainty; trade policy; labour demand; online job adverts; brexit; hiring
JEL Codes: N/A
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Brexit-induced trade policy uncertainty (F69) | local labour market outcomes (J48) |
| exposure to potential trade barriers (F14) | online job postings (J68) |
| exposure to potential trade barriers (F14) | higher-skilled job adverts (J68) |
| Brexit referendum (D79) | online job postings (J68) |
| threat of future tariffs on goods (F19) | job postings (M51) |
| Brexit-induced trade policy uncertainty (F69) | decline in job postings (J63) |