Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP1410
Authors: Joseph F. Francois; Bradley McDonald; Hakan Nordstrom
Abstract: In this paper we provide a broad overview of the computable general equilibrium (CGE) literature on the Uruguay Round, detailing the policy experiments of various studies and differences in model structures and relating these to the overall pattern of results. We supplement this overview with a discussion of implementation and offsetting factors. Overall, the literature points to significant potential gains from the Uruguay Round, particularly from non-tariff barrier (NTB) liberalization. Strict monitoring and enforcement of NTB-related provisions would yield significant benefits, while lax implementation would imply significant missed opportunities.
Keywords: Uruguay Round; CGE modelling; Trade liberalization; GATT; WTO
JEL Codes: F13; F47
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| NTB liberalization (F13) | trade gains (F19) |
| lax implementation (Y20) | reduced trade gains (F11) |
| strict implementation (K40) | trade gains (F19) |