Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP1408
Authors: Shirley Dex; Heather Joshi; Andrew McCulloch; Susan Macran
Abstract: The dynamics of women?s labour supply are examined at a crucial stage of the life-cycle. This paper uses the longitudinal employment history records for 3,893 33-year-old mothers in the 5th sweep of the 1958 National Child Development Study cohort. Models of binary recurrent events are estimated which correct for unobserved heterogeneity, using SABRE software. These models focus (a) on women?s first transition from first childbirth until the interview and (b) on all the monthly transitions. Evidence of a polarization was found between highly-educated, high-wage mothers and lower-educated, low-wage mothers.
Keywords: Labour Force Dynamics; Mothers Employment Histories
JEL Codes: C49; J13; J22; J24
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| higher levels of education (I23) | likelihood of returning to employment after childbirth (J22) |
| higher wages (J39) | likelihood of returning to employment after childbirth (J22) |
| higher educational qualifications (I23) | likelihood of reentering the workforce quickly (J63) |
| timing of childbirth (J13) | employment patterns (J68) |
| younger children (J13) | employment likelihood (J68) |
| well-educated partner (I25) | longer breaks from employment (J22) |
| unobserved heterogeneity (C21) | employment decisions (M51) |