Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP14040
Authors: Lewis Dijkstra; Hugo Poelman; Andrés Rodríguez-Pose
Abstract: Support for parties opposed to EU-integration has risen rapidly and a wave of discontent has taken over the EU. This discontent is purportedly driven by the very factors behind the surge of populism: differences in age, wealth, education, or economic and demographic trajectories. This paper maps the geography of EU discontent across more than 63,000 electoral districts in the EU-28 and assesses which factors push anti-EU voting. The results show that anti-EU vote is mainly a consequence of local economic and industrial decline in combination with lower employment and a less educated workforce. Many of the other suggested causes of discontent, by contrast, matter less than expected or their impact varies depending on levels of opposition to European integration.
Keywords: antieuropeanism; antisystem voting; populism; economic decline; industrial decline; education; migration; european union
JEL Codes: D72; R11
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| local economic and industrial decline (R11) | anti-EU voting (K16) |
| lower employment opportunities (J68) | anti-EU voting (K16) |
| lower educational attainment (I24) | anti-EU voting (K16) |
| wealthier regions experiencing economic decline (R11) | anti-EU voting (K16) |
| economic decline (F44) | share of votes for anti-EU parties (D72) |
| population density (J11) | anti-EU voting (K16) |
| fertility rates (J13) | economic change (O00) |