Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP14022
Authors: Sergei Guriev; Nikita Melnikov; Ekaterina Zhuravskaya
Abstract: How does mobile broadband internet affect government approval? Using surveys of 840,537 individuals from 2,232 subnational regions in 116 countries in 2008-2017 from the Gallup World Poll and the global expansion of third generation (3G) mobile networks, we show that an increase in mobile broadband internet access reduces government approval. This effect is present only when the internet is not censored and is stronger when traditional media is censored. This effect is reversed in the few countries with the lowest corruption. 3G helps expose actual corruption in government: revelations of the Panama Papers and corruption incidents translate into higher perceptions of corruption in regions covered by 3G networks. The disillusionment of voters in governments had electoral implications: In Europe, the expansion of mobile broadband internet led to a decrease in the vote shares of incumbent parties and an increase in the vote shares of the antiestablishment populist opposition. The vote shares of the nonpopulist opposition were unaffected by the expansion of 3G networks.
Keywords: government approval; 3G mobile internet; corruption; populism
JEL Codes: D72; D73; L86; P16
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| 3G expansion (L96) | awareness of governmental corruption (H57) |
| 3G expansion (L96) | government approval ratings (D72) |
| 3G expansion (L96) | perceived corruption (H57) |
| 3G expansion in contexts of corruption (H57) | government approval ratings (D72) |
| 3G expansion in countries with low corruption (H57) | government approval ratings (D72) |
| 3G expansion (L96) | vote shares for incumbent parties (D72) |
| 3G expansion (L96) | vote shares for populist opposition parties (D72) |