Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP14013
Authors: Thomas Keywood; Jörg Baten
Abstract: We develop a new indicator for elite numeracy in order to investigate trends in European elite numeracy since the 6th century CE and describe its co-evolution with elite violence over this period. During the early medieval period, Western Europe had no advantage over the east, but the development of relative violence levels changed this. After implementing an instrumental variable strategy and a battery of robustness tests, we find a substantial relationship and conclude that violence had a detrimental impact on human capital formation. The drastic increase in human capital since the High Middle Ages was at least partially due to declining violence.
Keywords: elite; human capital; elite violence; great divergence; europe; middle ages; early modern period
JEL Codes: N00; N13; N33
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| nomadic invasions from Central Asia (N95) | elite violence (P37) |
| elite violence (P37) | elite numeracy (C51) |
| increase in regicide (N40) | decrease in elite numeracy (C19) |
| one standard deviation increase in elite violence (D74) | elite numeracy (C51) |