Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP13997
Authors: Michal Burzynski; Christoph Deuster; Frdric Docquier; Jaime Melo
Abstract: This paper investigates the long-term implications of climate change on local, interregional, and international migration of workers. For nearly all of the world's countries, our micro-founded model jointly endogenizes the effects of changing temperature and sea level on income distribution and individual decisions about fertility, education, and mobility. Climate change intensifies poverty and income inequality creating favorable conditions for urbanization and migration from low- to high-latitude countries. Encompassing slow- and fast-onset mechanisms, our projections suggest that climate change will induce the voluntary and forced displacement of 100 to 160 million workers (200 to 300 million climate migrants of all ages) over the course of the 21st century. However, under current migration laws and policies, forcibly displaced people predominantly relocate within their country and merely 20% of climate migrants opt for long-haul migration to OECD countries. If climate change induces generalized and persistent conflicts over resources in regions at risk, we project significantly larger cross-border flows in the future.
Keywords: climate change; migration; inequality; urbanization; conflicts
JEL Codes: E24; F22; J24; J61; Q15; Q54
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| climate change (CC) (Q54) | poverty (I32) |
| climate change (CC) (Q54) | income inequality (D31) |
| poverty (I32) | urbanization (R11) |
| urbanization (R11) | migration from low to high latitude countries (J61) |
| climate change (CC) (Q54) | forced displacement (J63) |
| climate change (CC) (Q54) | voluntary migration (F22) |
| forced displacement (J63) | relocation within countries (J61) |
| forced displacement (J63) | long-haul migration to OECD countries (F22) |
| climate change (CC) (Q54) | generalized and persistent conflicts over resources (Q34) |
| generalized and persistent conflicts over resources (Q34) | larger cross-border migration flows (F22) |
| climate change (CC) (Q54) | worldwide average income per worker (F66) |
| climate change (CC) (Q54) | global income inequality (F61) |
| climate change (CC) (Q54) | extreme poverty worldwide (I32) |
| fast-onset climate shocks (Q54) | extreme poverty (I32) |
| fast-onset climate shocks (Q54) | international migration (F22) |
| conflicts over resources (Q34) | international migration pressures (F22) |