Working Paper: CEPR ID: DP13918
Authors: Tiziano Arduini; Alberto Bisin; Onur Ozgur; Eleonora Patacchini
Abstract: We study risky behavior of adolescents. Concentrating on smoking and alcohol use, westructurally estimate a dynamic social interaction model in the context of students' schoolnetworks included in the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health). Themodel allows for forward-looking behavior of agents, addiction effects, and social interactionsin the form of preferences for conformity in the social network.We find strong evidence for forward looking dynamics and addiction effects. We alsofi nd that social interactions in the estimated dynamic model are quantitatively large. Amisspeci fied static model would t data substantially worse, while producing a much smallerestimate of the social interaction effect. With the estimated dynamic model, a temporaryshock to students' preferences in the 10th grade has effects on their behavior in grades 10, 11,12, with estimated social multipliers 1.53, 1.03, and 0.76, respectively. The multiplier effectof a permanent shock is much larger, up to 3.7 in grade 12. Moreover, (semi-) elasticities of apermanent change in the availability of alcohol or cigarettes at home on child risky behaviorimplied by the dynamic equilibrium are 25%, 63%, and 79%, in grades 10, 11, 12, respectively.
Keywords: dynamic social interactions; conformity; addiction; identification; model validation; dynamic social multiplier; Heckman selection
JEL Codes: C18; C33; C62; C63; C73; I12
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Social interactions within school networks (Z13) | risky behaviors (smoking and alcohol consumption) (I12) |
| Temporary shock to students' preferences in grade 10 (A21) | behavior in grades 10, 11, and 12 (A21) |
| Permanent shock (D50) | behavior in grade 12 (C92) |
| Change in availability of alcohol or cigarettes at home (L66) | risky behavior (D91) |